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How a network learns · CHAPTER 5 OF 7

~6 min read ·

The exam versus the track record

Most promises in this field rest on a backtest: take a strategy, run it over history, show a pretty curve. The problem is not that the arithmetic is wrong. The problem is that the author saw that history while building the strategy — and fitted the rules to it, even without meaning to. Try a thousand settings and one will look brilliant. None of it is a lie, and none of it means anything.

KVERX therefore distinguishes two entirely different kinds of evidence and never mixes them.

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